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24th January 2002

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Recession: An opportunity or threat?

One should set his vision for his company’s performance post-recession states V R Kannan

GENERALLY, recession affects advertising spend, manpower, future investments and the cuts in these have already hit the headlines. The fluctuating fortune of the IT industry also speaks for the effect of global recession.

However, one is not going to ignore health because of recession. So the health industry has not been affected and is not likely to be also. The pharma industry has seen a lower growth rate overall, but select therapeutic segments and strong players in these segments have shown growth rates, beyond expectations.

Reason: Their smartness in segment selections. Essential medicines will be consumed and superfluous ones will come down. However, part of the decline in industry growth is also the continuous price reductions - competition sponsored or government notified. In the face of recession, what does one do? One should set his vision for his company’s performance post-recession.

The immediate inclination to cut down should be avoided. David Ogilvy, the advertising giant says, ‘‘If you stop advertising a brand which is still in its introductory phase, you will probably kill it for ever. This is true of brands or products in the peak growth phase. Ogilvy adds that companies that do not cut back their advertising budgets grow almost double when recession ends and recovery starts.

During recession do not cut the number of ads, if possible increase; but cut the cost of advertisements, as the media industry will definitely bring down their prices to keep floating.

As regards, manpower - the immediate trend is downsize. While you downsize one needs to be careful because when recession ends you may not be able to attract talent. Release the less talented as smoothly as you can without compromising the corporate image. Talent had been scarce earlier but with the attractive industries like IT going down the hill, talent will be available for the pharma industry, probably at a lesser cost.

However, one should optimize compensation of talent and do not overpay. The loyal employee race is diminishing and try to compensate properly so that loyalty begins again and job satisfaction peaks.

With improving longevity and reducing mortality it is for the intelligent company to focus on geriatric medical solutions as more than 30 per cent of tomorrow’s population will be senior citizens. Recession will probably affect big companies with more flab, than it will affect the Underdogs. This is the time Underdogs, who have nothing to lose and everything to gain, should be aggressive.

When recession ends, GATT starts, what does one do? There is no cause for concern. Existing products are not likely to be replaced by newer ones in most of the therapeutic segments and the affordability of the average man in a mass market like India is unlikely to go up. So current therapies are likely to continue for another decade and a half. A time good enough for companies to think big, plan big and become big also.

However, the marketing mix has to be prudently handled, especially looking at novel methods of promotion with a 100 per cent certainty to reach the customer, most of the times and hence get a better share of his mind. Another important aspect is that companies should publicise their commitment to the community they service and profit from. Keep advertising and at a same time let the aspirins also be available.

Look at recession as an opportunity not a threat.
The writer V R Kannan is vice-president (marketing) at Bal Pharma Ltd, Bangalore

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